CBS Shakeup In Indy…Here?

First, let’s make this rather clear. As far as we know, there are no network affiliation change plans in the works at any Cleveland TV station, let alone at Tribune Fox affiliate WJW/8 “Fox 8”.

But Tribune’s recent move in the Indianapolis market is causing some to wonder…could it happen here?

Tribune announced that starting on January 1, 2015, it would take the CBS affiliation for now-CW affiliate WTTV/4 in Indianapolis (WTTV/4 Bloomington IN-WTTK/29 Kokomo IN) from the market’s current, long-time affiliate…LIN-to-be-Media General’s WISH-TV/8.

CW in Indianapolis would move to WTTV’s 4.2 subchannel, unless WISH-TV somehow snags it instead.

There are reportedly two factors involved in the CBS move in Indianapolis: WISH-TV/LIN balking at whatever CBS is asking for affiliation fees, and the desire for Tribune to snag CBS for its NFL American Football Conference affiliation package, making it the home of Indianapolis Colts regular season games starting in the 2015 season (or even late season playoff games after January 1st).

Now, let’s hit the pros and cons of Tribune making a similar move in Cleveland, returning the CBS affiliation to once-long-time affiliate WJW. (Again, please note, we’re just moving the chess pieces here. As far as we know, no such move is even being rumored in Cleveland.)

We’ll start with the “cons”, because we don’t see such a move happening in Cleveland.

CONS:

* Tribune presumably has a deal with Fox for WJW and the other former Local TV LLC Fox affiliates that it inherited with the purchase of WJW’s former owner. And…

* Tribune is a very strong Fox affiliate group. In addition to the former Local TV LLC stations, it has high-performing Fox affiliates in Seattle, Sacramento and WTTV’s sister station in Indianapolis, WXIN/59 “Fox 59”. Unlike in Indianapolis, Tribune only owns one station here, WJW.

* The combination of local news and Fox programming has made WJW a very successful station.

* WJW changing networks to CBS would put a stake through the heart of one of the station’s most popular programs, the 5-plus hour morning ratings machine “Fox 8 News in the Morning”, assuming Channel 8 would be required to carry CBS’ third-place “This Morning” from 7-9 AM.

* Going to CBS would also break up WJW’s successful afternoon/evening block of “Fox 8 News” from 4 PM to 7:30 PM, with the “CBS Evening News with Scott Pelley” airing somewhere there (likely at 6:30 PM).

* While the CBS prime-time lineup is very popular, the network skews older than Fox.

Now, some of the PROS:

* Like in Indianapolis with the Colts, the return of CBS to WJW would make it the regular season home of Cleveland Browns football, thanks to CBS’ contract to carry the NFL’s AFC games.

* Though moving to CBS would end the dominance WJW has in news at 10 PM, a new 11 PM Channel 8 newscast would probably rule the market due to that strong prime-time lineup. Indeed, it’s the primary reason “19 Action News” can claim ratings wins at 11 PM.

A number of pieces would have to fall into place for CBS to return to WJW.

For one, Raycom Media would have to balk at CBS’ affiliate fees. But we have no idea when the Raycom/CBS deal is up for renewal, so we don’t know if that’s even an issue any time soon.

For another, Tribune would have to be willing to make the switch in Cleveland.

For a third, we assume the deal to air Fox on WJW and seven other former Local TV LLC Fox affiliates has some time to go, assuming Tribune inherited the deal.

We reach back to our own archives in 2007-into-2008, when Local TV LLC was buying WJW and other stations formerly owned by Fox itself:

One other big piece of news we can share: WJW will remain a FOX affiliate under the sale agreement. The deal includes a 10 year contract with the network that’s selling the station, though as we said before, we find it hard to envision any other outcome anyway.

Assuming Tribune hasn’t renegotiated the deal, that would tie WJW to Fox until at least late 2017-early 2018, and Fox certainly wouldn’t want to see “Fox 8” leave the network fold.

Where would Fox go if WJW ended up in the CBS fold?

It would be a natural presumption to see another return to old branding, with Raycom’s WOIO/19 becoming “Fox 19” (not spelled out “Nineteen” this time).

The company’s Cincinnati station, WXIX/19, even uses that branding today and is a long-time Fox affiliate.

But…we don’t see this move happening at all, for many of the above reasons.

A lot of proverbial footwear would have to drop to return the CBS network to WJW, and we don’t see any shoes heading for the floor at this time…